US Export Sales
October 30, 2015
After an up and down week, markets finished last Friday on a weak note with still very little to push pricing in either direction. Funds adjusted their positions through the week, and even new export business and encouraging rainfall only saw marginal gains across key commodities.
New export business was reported for South Korea, Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia all buying wheat, a 130,000 metric tonne sale of corn to an unknown destination, and two sales of US soybeans to China totalling 444,000mt. Despite the recent export business to China, which is encouraging, US bean exports remain well behind last year. Corn is following the exact trend also, well behind last year which could see the USDA reduce forecasts on corn exports in the next report which would be a concern for values going forward. US growers aren’t active sellers at current levels, and will aim to sit on uncommitted grain into 2016.
A major focus with an eye for 2016 has been northern hemisphere rainfall. Expect for light showers over isolated areas, the dry weather pattern is forecasted to persist over most of Central and Northern Brazil. Soybean plantings in the country is well behind the historical average, with only 20 per cent planted in central-western areas compared to the 5 year average of 30% according to local reports. There are however some regions through the south which have received decent rainfall of late. This did interrupt seeding and will prompt some re-seeding in isolated areas, however may provide a good base for the crops to emerge, and remain in good health – pending more rainfall over the next few weeks of course. There were also reports of rainfall across parts of the US and Black Sea which will likely support 2016/17 winter crop markets.